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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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