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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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