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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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