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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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