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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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