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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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