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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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