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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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