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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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