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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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