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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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