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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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