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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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