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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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