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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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