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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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