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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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