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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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