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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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