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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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