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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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