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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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