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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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