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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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