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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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