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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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