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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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