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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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