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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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