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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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