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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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