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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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