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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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