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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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