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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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