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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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