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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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