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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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