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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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