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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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