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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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