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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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