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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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