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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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