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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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