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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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