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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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