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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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