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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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