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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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